Student

Income Forecast

Project multi-year income with rental growth, occupancy drift and cost inflation.

Intermediate

Introduction

Who this is for: Operators and investors modelling operational asset income over a hold period.

Why it matters: Where costs inflate faster than rents, net income falls even as revenue rises. Modelling both separately is the only way to see margin compression coming.

Typical scenario: A five-year hold on a student scheme with 3% rental growth against 4% cost inflation.

Common mistakes:
  • Applying the same growth rate to income and costs, which hides margin erosion.
  • Assuming occupancy stays flat across the whole hold.
  • Forecasting from a peak year rather than a normalised base.

Inputs

Base Year

£
£
%

Assumptions

%
%
%

years

%

Analysis

Net income moves from £740,000 to £805,749 over 5 years — growth of 8.9%, with margin moving from 68.5% to 66.1%. At a 6.25% exit yield that values the asset at £12,891,991, with £3,896,574 of income collected along the way.

This analysis provides context, not financial advice. Consult a qualified adviser before making investment decisions.

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Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity

Adjust the variables below to stress-test this scenario. Results update instantly.

£1,080,000
£0£2,160,000
3%
-1020
4%
-1020
6.25%
120

Export

Live Results

Final Year Net Income

£805,749

Base Year Net Income

£740,000

Net Income Growth

8.89%

Exit Value

£12,891,991

Costs inflate at 4% against 3% rental growth. Margin falls from 68.5% to 66.1% — net income grows more slowly than revenue, and eventually falls.
Occupancy declines 0.5 points a year, reaching 93.5% by exit. Check the competing supply pipeline supports that assumption.
Cumulative Net Income£3,896,574
Base Margin68.52%
Final Margin66.08%
Margin Change-2.44%