General

Sensitivity Analysis

Test how far key variables can move before an investment stops working.

Intermediate

Introduction

Who this is for: Investors stress-testing an appraisal before committing.

Why it matters: The base case is the least interesting scenario, because it is the one that never happens. What matters is how much room there is before the deal breaks — and which single variable breaks it first.

Typical scenario: An investor checking how far values, rent or rates can move before an acquisition becomes loss-making.

Common mistakes:
  • Testing one variable at a time when a downturn moves several together.
  • Stress-testing by a fixed percentage rather than by a plausible market move.
  • Treating the base case as the expected outcome rather than one point in a range.

Inputs

Base Case

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Stress Ranges

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Analysis

Base cash flow is £27,400. Income can fall 48.9% or rates rise 5.27 points before it reaches zero, and values can fall 13.3% before breaching the LTV covenant. Under combined stress, cash flow is £8,600.

This analysis provides context, not financial advice. Consult a qualified adviser before making investment decisions.

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Sensitivity Analysis

Sensitivity

Adjust the variables below to stress-test this scenario. Results update instantly.

£56,000
£0£112,000
5.5%
020

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Live Results

Base Net Cash Flow

£27,400

Combined Stress Cash Flow

£8,600

Income Fall to Break-Even

48.93%

Rate Rise to Break-Even

5.27%

A 20% value fall pushes LTV to 81.3%, breaching the 75% covenant. Values need only fall 13.3% to trigger it.
The most sensitive variable is capital value — that is where to focus diligence.
Cash Flow: Income Stress£19,000
Cash Flow: Rate Stress£17,000
LTV After Value Fall81.25%
Value Fall to Breach Covenant13.33%
Most Sensitive VariableCapital value